By: Jay Newton-Small

Only nine months ago, the 2010 electoral landscape looked ripe with promise to freshman Senator Bob Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat who assumed the helm of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), which helps elect Democratic candidates to the Senate. Riding high with what would become a gain of eight seats (when the Minnesota recount was eventually decided in Al Franken’s favor), Menendez was delighted when four Republican Senators announced their intention to retire: George Voinovich of Ohio, Mel Martinez of Florida, Kit Bond of Missouri and Sam Brownback of Kansas. President Barack Obama had carried both Ohio and Florida in 2008, and the open seats looked promising for potential Democratic pickups.

But suddenly things started changing. The political scandals surrounding Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich and Senator Roland Burris have handicapped the Democrats’ chances of keeping Obama’s old Senate seat. Governors in Colorado and New York appointed two relative unknowns to fill Ken Salazar’s and Hillary Clinton’s shoes, respectively, both of whom left for the Cabinet. And then Ted Kennedy died, prompting a Massachusetts special election due to be held in January.

Even worse, there are at least five incumbents who are facing competitive races: Arkansas’s Blanche Lincoln, Pennsylvania’s new Democratic Senator Arlen Specter, Senate majority leader Harry Reid of Nevada, Connecticut’s Chris Dodd and Barbara Boxer, who will face off with former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina in California. Reid and Dodd have some of the worst polls in the Senate — hovering near 30% approval ratings. “Illinois, Pennsylvania, Connecticut: those will be the most expensive to defend,” says Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report, which tracks congressional races. “The more money you have to spend on defense takes away from what you’re spending on offense.”

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