Campaigns

Obama’s Appearances at Fundraisers Outpace Presidents Bush and Clinton

Monday, October 26th, 2009

Just nine months into his presidency, President Obama has appeared at 23 Democratic fundraisers, including the two he attended Tuesday night, compared with George W. Bush, who did six political fundraisers, and Bill Clinton, who did five, during their first year in office.

When it comes to making appearances at political fundraisers, President Obama apparently can’t say no — especially when compared to his two predecessors.

Just nine months into his presidency, Obama has appeared at 23 Democratic fundraisers, including the two he attended Tuesday night, according to Mark Knoller of CBS News, who keeps a detailed log of presidential activities.

By comparison, George W. Bush attended six political fundraisers and Bill Clinton went to five during their first year in office.

“That’s a clear disparity,” said Pete Sepp, vice president for policy and communications at the National Taxpayers Union.

But when it comes to raking in the cash for fellow party members, Bush appears to be the fundraiser-in-chief.

He raised $48 million in those six fundraisers, while Obama raised $21 million in his first 20.

Obama’s whirlwind fundraising tour is far from finished. This week he’s going to a rally for New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, who’s locked in a tight race with Republican challenger Chris Christie; he’ll visit Boston to raise money for Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, who is up for re-election in 2010; and he’ll be at a fundraiser for Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd, who is facing a tough re-election next year.

Next week, leading up to the Nov. 3 election, Obama will campaign for R. Creigh Deeds, who trails Republican Bob McDonnell in the race for Virginia governor. 

There’s plenty at stake for Obama, who is the Democrats’ top fundraiser. Dollars aren’t materializing as much as expected for Democrats. And, two weeks before off-year elections, Democrats are facing the prospect of losing the hard-fought gubernatorial race in Virginia and perhaps even in New Jersey. They are contests that depend on the Democratic base and to a certain degree are shaping up as a test of Obama’s political strength.

It’s not just this year’s races that are at issue but also the broader state of the Democratic Party — from cash-flow to enthusiasm — heading into next year. In the 2010 elections, Democrats will try to defend their majorities in Congress and seek to pick up governor’s seats in many states.

The party that controls the White House typically loses congressional seats in a president’s first midterm election. Obama wants to avoid the fate of Clinton, who like the current president swept into office with youthful energy, only to see his party lose control of Congress two years later.

Obama is calculating that he can’t afford criticism from the Democratic Party’s base supporters that he’s not helping candidates. But there also are risks to full-throttle campaigning.

“If governors and members of the House and Senate come to the conclusion that Obama’s personal support is not transferrable or that his supporters have not remained mobilized, the impact of his personal charisma will be seen as more limited than it was a year ago,” said Kenneth Sherrill, a political science professor at Hunter College in New York.

“All in all, he gets more credit for making a public effort than for sitting on the sidelines and watching Democrats at risk fend for themselves,” Sherrill said.

The circumstances were quite different for Obama’s predecessors.

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Cornyn: August ‘disaster’ helped GOP

Tuesday, September 8th, 2009

By Reid Wilson

National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chairman John Cornyn (Texas) will inform colleagues on Tuesday that the August recess gave Republicans a new advantage heading into the 2010 elections.

In a memo to Republican senators, Cornyn calls the summer break “nothing short of a disaster for our Democrat colleagues” that put momentum behind the GOP. After beginning the cycle with more retirements and vulnerable incumbents than Democrats had, Cornyn notes: “What a difference a couple of months makes.”

“President Obama is now attempting to press the reset button for the third time on the healthcare debate with his joint address to Congress this week,” Cornyn writes in the memo. “Republicans agree with the president that both parties need to work together to rein in out-of-control healthcare costs. We agree the status quo is unsustainable.

“But we do not agree that the way to solve that problem is to raise costs, destroy jobs and put government bureaucrats in charge of decisions that should be made by patients and doctors,” he added. “Judging by the reaction from citizens across the country this summer, the American people agree with us.”

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Giuliani, Seeing Opening, Mulls a Governor Bid

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

By DANNY HAKIMGiuliani

ALBANY — Nineteen months after ending his disastrous run for the presidency, Rudolph W. Giuliani is clearing a path for a possible race for governor in 2010, believing public anger at an ineffectual Albany and unease over the economy could create ideal conditions for a Republican to reclaim the governor’s mansion.

Mr. Giuliani has told associates that he will decide on a candidacy within 30 to 60 days, as he weighs whether he can be elected statewide and what impact another campaign would have on his business interests.

He is already laying the groundwork. On Friday he traveled to Long Island to encourage the state Republican Party chairman, Joseph N. Mondello, to step aside, a maneuver that party insiders viewed as the former mayor’s most concrete step yet toward a run.

On Monday, Mr. Mondello announced his resignation, and Mr. Giuliani’s lieutenants were working the phones to drum up support for the replacement they prefer, the Niagara County Republican chairman, Henry F. Wojtaszek, a longtime supporter of Mr. Giuliani’s.

Mr. Giuliani’s efforts to sound out party leaders about a candidacy have also intensified. He has crisscrossed the state meeting with local officials; after a motivational speech to a paying audience in Buffalo last Tuesday, he met with local Republican leaders in a private meeting room to talk about the race. In recent weeks, he has also discussed his possible candidacy with Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg and met in Washington with Representative Peter T. King, a Republican who has considered running himself but said he would not if Mr. Giuliani became a candidate.

Mr. Giuliani declined to be interviewed, but several people who have spoken to him said he sees parallels between the current conditions in Albany and those in the city before his election as mayor. Voters were willing to take a chance on him then, he has said, in part because they were fed up with the dysfunction.

“Several times, he said to me that he sees state government similar to where New York City was in 1993: out of control,” said Mr. King, who met with Mr. Giuliani late last month at the Capitol Hill Club. “So many people are saying the state can’t be governed, which is what everyone was saying about the city then. In Rudy’s mind, this is a challenge.”

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GOP Senate Campaign Unit Cuts Into DSCC Lead

Monday, August 24th, 2009

By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff GOP elephant

With just 40 of the 100 Senate seats and six retiring senators in their ranks, Senate Republicans have virtually no chance of regaining a majority in the 2010 elections. But the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), which orchestrates the party’s national Senate campaign, is holding its own in fundraising.

The NRSC raised $2.8 million in July, compared to $2 million for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), according to updated campaign finance reports that both organizations filed last week with the Senate Office of Public Records in Washington.

The coming months will tell, though, whether the July numbers mark a trend or were an anomaly. The DSCC — which dominated the NRSC in fundraising during the pro-Democratic campaign years of 2006 and 2008 — still has raised more total funds than the NRSC over the first seven months of this year, by $25.3 million to $23.5 million.

There is no question that the NRSC is putting in a stronger performance early in this election cycle than in the one before. The GOP committee’s fundraising is up 29 percent over what it raised in the first seven months of 2007. With the national economic downturn acting as a drag on fundraising in general, the NRSC is the only one of the parties’ four congressional campaign committees that has raised more in the first seven months of 2009 than in the first seven months of 2007.

The two parties’ balance sheets were close to even at the end of July. The DSCC had $7.2 million left to spend and $3.3 million in debts; the NRSC has $4.4 million in cash on hand and no debts.

The DSCC spent $508,000 on July on expenses related to the long recount of votes and legal actions in the 2008 Minnesota Senate race, which the state Supreme Court decided in Democrat Al Franken ’s favor on June 30. Nearly all of the DSCC’s expenditures went to the law firm Perkins Coie.

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee

• Receipts, July 2009: $2 million

• Receipts, year to date: $25.3 million

• Disbursements, July 2009: $2.9 million

• Disbursements, year to date: $18.4 million

• Cash on hand, July 31: $7.2 million

• Debts, July 31: $3.3 million

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Democrats Brace for Tough Congressional Races in 2010

Monday, August 24th, 2009

Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele is taking a cautious view of the 2010 mid-term elections, but analysts predict the GOP will score big next year.

It’s no secret that mid-term elections are generally unfavorable to the party in control of the White House. But some say the public backlash to Democrats’ health care reform plans, along with growing discontent over job losses and the way stimulus money is being spent, prove Democrats have substantial challenges ahead in 2010.

“Right now I wouldn’t be surprised if Democrats lost anywhere from 15 to 25 seats in the House,” said David Wasserman, an editor with the Cook Political Report.

But Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, has been preparing for a tough fight in 2010 and urging his party colleagues to do the same.

“Way back in January, we made it clear to our members on the Democratic side — get ready, fasten your seat belts, because this is going to be a tough cycle,” he said. “And the good news for us is they’ve been preparing from day one.”

But Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., suggested Democrats have dug their own holes.

“It’s a combination of the work they’ve done and where they’re going,” he said. “But it’s also about arrogance — the arrogance of not listening to constituents.”

New polling shows Democrats are failing to connect with a key group of voters. According to a recent Gallup Poll, a whopping 70 percent of independents now disapprove of how the Democrat-controlled Congress is doing its job, while just 22 percent say they approve. The poll of 1,010 adults was taken Aug. 6-9 and had a 4-point margin of error.

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CO Gov Poll: Ritter Vulnerable

Friday, August 21st, 2009

Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter (D), who shot into office in 2006 with 17-point Bill Rittermargin of victory, is vulnerable as he gears up for a run at re-election. A new Public Policy Polling survey found the governor with an upside-down approval rating and trailing a potential Republican opponent.

Ritter trails with 38 percent to 46 percent for former Rep. Scott McInnis (R), who served six terms in Congress from 1992 to 2004. The other Republican tested is Josh Penry, a 33-year-old state Senate minority leader and former congressional aide to McInnis. Ritter and Penry are tied at 40 percent apiece.

“The good news for Bill Ritter is that despite a tough budget cycle and Democrats polling worse nationally he’s not in any worse shape than four months ago,” said PPP president Dean Debnam. “The bad news of course is that he already had a negative approval rating and an outside the margin of error gap against one of his possible GOP opponents back then.”

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Toomey Ad Shows Specter 94′ vs Specter 09′ on Govt. Health Care

Wednesday, August 19th, 2009

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Boxer could face re-election fight of her career against Fiorina

Monday, August 17th, 2009

barbara-boxerby: Mike Zapler

Democrat Barbara Boxer’s quest for a fourth term in the U.S. Senate may give Californians a chance to pass judgment on Washington in the Obama era: Do voters approve of the early performance of the Democratic president and Congress? Or is it time to restore more power to Republicans, in this case to a controversial former Silicon Valley CEO making her first run for elective office?

What looks increasingly likely is that Boxer will be in for the re-election fight of her career. While she has yet to announce her candidacy, all signs point to a run by Republican Carly Fiorina, the charismatic ex-chief of Hewlett-Packard who was ousted from her job in 2005 and last year served as a top surrogate for John McCain’s

Fiorina would bring a combination of traits to the race never faced before by Boxer: She is a woman with the wherewithal to pump millions of her own dollars into her candidacy and probably raise millions more from others. And historically, the election after a president first takes office has not been kind to the party in charge at the White House. Exhibit A is 1994, when Democrats lost control of Congress halfway into President Bill Clinton’s first term.

In this case, analysts say, the 2010 California Senate election is expected to be at least partly a referendum on the policies of Obama and the Democratic Congress — from health care to immigration to climate change. And as chairman of the Senate committee shaping global warming legislation in the coming months, Boxer will have little distance from the president — for better or worse.

GOP thinks the unthinkable: Victory in 2010

Friday, August 14th, 2009

By: Byron York
Chief Political Correspondent 

It’s a possibility many Republicans speak of only in whispers and Democrats are just now beginning to face. After passionate and contentious fights over health care, the environment, and taxes, could Democrats lose big — really big — in next year’s elections?

Ask them about it, and many Democrats will point to the continued personal popularity of Barack Obama. But that’s not the story. “I think what’s going to happen is Obama’s going to be fine, and the Democrats in Congress are going to get their asses kicked in 2010,” says one Democratic strategist who prefers not to be named. “This is following a curve like the Clinton years: take on really controversial things early, fail, or succeed partially, ask Democrats to take really tough votes, and then lose. A lot of guys are going to get beat, but the president has time to recover.”

Most Republican hope focuses on the House of Representatives, but even there they have a huge job ahead. Democrats control 256 seats, and Republicans 178. Forty seats would have to change hands for Republicans to take charge.

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Election 2010: Pennsylvania Senate Election

Thursday, August 13th, 2009

TOOMEY4_0328_PAC_23482Uncomfortable town hall meetings are just the tip of the iceberg for Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter. He now trails Republican Pat Toomey by double digits in his bid for reelection next year and is viewed unfavorably by a majority of the state’s voters.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Pennsylvania voters shows 48% would vote for Toomey if the election were held today. Just 36% would vote for Specter while four percent (4%) prefer a third option, and 12% are not sure.

These figures reflect a dramatic reversal since June. At that time, before the public health care debate began, Specter led Toomey by eleven.

Just 43% now have a favorable opinion of Specter while 54% offer an unfavorable assessment of the longtime GOP senator who became a Democrat rather than face Toomey in a party primary. Those numbers have reversed since June when 53% had a favorable opinion of him.

The current figures include 15% with a Very Favorable opinion of Specter and 36% with a Very Unfavorable view.

Click here to read full Rasmussen report.