Fresh off major Election Day victories in Virginia and New Jersey, Republicans got another boost Wednesday with a new Gallup poll that shows registered voters favoring the GOP over Democrats if the 2010 congressional election were held today.

The Gallup survey, conducted Nov. 5-8, found that 48 percent of respondents said they would vote for a Republican candidate for Congress, while 44 percent said they would back a Democrat.

Independent voters were decidedly stronger in their preference for a Republican candidate, choosing the GOP by a 22 percent margin — 52 to 30 percent — according to the survey.

“The number one reason for the poll results is the economy,” said Larry Sabato, director of the center for politics at the University of Virginia.  

“People are generally concerned that we haven’t seen more economic recovery, particularly in unemployment,” he said, though he stressed that numbers can change substantially within the next year.

“The wind is going to be at the backs of the Republicans” going into the 2010 midterm elections, but “it could be anything from a breeze to hurricane force,” Sabato added.

The Gallup trend mirrors results of Fox News polls, which last April found Democrats enjoying a 13-point lead over Republicans for the House congressional races. But a Fox News survey conducted Oct. 27-28 found Republicans had surged to a one-point lead over Democrats.

Combined with Republican gubernatorial victories in New Jersey and Virginia, the trend line could spell trouble for the Democrats legislative agenda in Congress, which includes pulling a comprehensive health care overhaul across the finish line, enacting new regulations on greenhouse gas emissions, and a bevy of financial regulations.

In New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie defeated Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, in spite of President Obama campaigning heavily for the incumbent in the closing days of the race, and the state not electing a Republican governor since 1993.

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